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May 11, 2009
Dear Patients,
I want to give you some updated thoughts on the swine (H1N1) flu.
As I wrote in the last newsletter, H1N1 flus are different in that they are much more likely to kill young healthy people and the first such outbreak we know of, nearly 100 years ago, killed approximately 50 million people. I also wrote that with more time we’d learn whether to be very frightened or not particularly concerned.
Since then the epidemic has spread worldwide. This influenza is/was more lethal to healthy young adults then are the typical annual flu outbreaks. Thankfully, it has also proved to be far less deadly than early indications. The reason or reasons for that are unclear at this time. It might be that illness reporting in Mexico was misleading in that the deaths of young people from flu attracted attention without recognizing that many, many people had suffered much milder symptoms. Consequently, initial data suggested that this disease was much worse than it really was. It might also be that the virus has already mutated, as influenza viruses tend to do, becoming much less deadly.
Before we forget about this influenza, we should remember that the worst pandemics began like this and then changed in a dramatic way. We should also remember how unpredictable that process is and how unlikely it is that this will turn into such a deadly pandemic. No one knows but the odds are clearly in our favor.
Best,
Michael Carlston, MD
www.carlstonmd.com
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